Poll: Ontario Liberals close the gap in former 'Fortress Toronto'

The Grits and Tories are once again neck-and-neck in the provincial horserace in Toronto, a new poll by Forum Research has found.

According to the poll, 36 per cent of decided and leaning Toronto voters said they would choose the Progressive Conservatives, if an election were held today, while 33 per cent said they would support the Liberals, which the pollster notes is a statistical tie. Another 23 per cent said they would vote NDP, with six per cent saying they'd go Green and two per cent opting for a different party.

The poll was conducted Oct. 5 to 8, with a sample size of 813 and a margin of error of +/- 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

“The gap between the Liberals and PCs has narrowed once again in Toronto,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research. “While the Liberals would much prefer to lead in Toronto, where they desperately need to win most of the seats to have any hope of forming a government, narrowing the gap could be a victory, for now. For the PCs, though, even a tie with the Liberals in their Fortress Toronto should be heartening, as stealing seats from the Liberals here all but guarantees a Progressive Conservative Government.”

Forum's tracking of voter intention in Toronto shows the PCs leading the Liberals in Toronto most of the year, but for a poll in late May that found the parties tied.

Back in 2014, the Liberals won 21 of 23 Toronto seats, but the Tories picked up Scarborough - Rouge River in a byelection last year. In 2015, the federal Liberal party swept the city.

 Chart provided by Forum Research.