Patrick Brown has 'overwhelming' early lead in Brampton mayoral race: poll

It looks like Patrick Brown has a head start as he tries to run it back.

The former federal Conservative leadership candidate and Progressive Conservative party leader is polling ahead of some other hypothetical candidates for the Brampton mayor's seat, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll — though about a third of voters remain undecided.

Brown was disqualified from the CPC leadership race for what the party called "serious allegations of wrongdoing." He announced he'll run for mayor again despite vowing to fight the disqualification. He is currently the mayor, a position he won in 2018.

The election will be held on Oct. 24.

If it were instead held today, 41 per cent of respondents said they'd vote for Brown.

Mainstreet CEO Quito Maggi said he expected Brown to be in the lead since politics is a "name-recognition game" but was surprised at how far ahead he was.

There are still three months until the election, Maggi noted.

"So, could this change? Sure. But it's going to take a big name and someone running an absolutely astounding campaign to beat him," he said.

A third (33 per cent) of voters said they were undecided.

Brown does slightly worse with female voters (39.7 per cent) and people under 49 (37.5 per cent). But the over-65s tend to dominate municipal elections, Maggi said. Brown does well with that cohort (50.2 per cent).

"This is really an overwhelming lead for Patrick Brown in Brampton," he said.

The poll surveyed 1,054 voting-age people living in Brampton on July 18 and 19.

The survey didn't include any of the three registered challengers to Brown, as they have little to no name recognition, Maggi said.

It also doesn't include Liberal MP Ruby Sahota, who has said she's considering a run, as Maggi said he hadn't heard about her intentions when the questions were scripted.

Instead, the poll inserts three Brampton city councillors, some of whom have been the subject of rumours about the mayoral race but have not stated their intentions. None commented by press time.

The poll also includes Gurratan Singh, the former NDP MPP and brother of federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who lost his seat in the June provincial election.

Maggi said he wanted to test how Brown would fare against a tougher field than the one he currently faces. But he reiterated that things could change.

"We'll probably take another snapshot after the filing deadline," Maggi said. "If there is a straight head-to-head — Sahota versus Patrick Brown — the dynamic of the race and the public opinion becomes very different."

Brown may yet face trouble during the campaign. A group of five Brampton councillors recently voted for an investigation into part of the city's finances while Brown was in office, citing irregularities and noting that hundreds of thousands of dollars went to a firm that employed a close associate of Brown's. The group released a statement saying, "Democracy in Brampton is under siege because of Patrick Brown."

For now, Brown's office said they're pleased with the polling results. Spokesperson Gary Collins said the mayor "is focused is on getting a council elected that will help him recruit innovation jobs to Brampton, rein in property taxes, diversify recreational options and ensure faster police responses."

Brown formerly led the Ontario PC party until he was forced out in 2018 after accusations of sexual misconduct and amid allegations of wrongdoing in his party's nomination process. The 44-year-old has also been a Barrie city councillor and a Conservative MP.

Mainstreet Research is part owner of iPolitics and QP Briefing.