COVID-19 roundup: Premier Doug Ford says 'a surge is coming'

"A surge is coming."

That was Premier Doug Ford's stark warning to Ontarians on what to expect from the COVID-19 crisis in the days to come. But despite the cautionary words, government officials didn't share any of the numbers they're working with from modelling of the disease. Later in the day, Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams said he expects to release some information related to modelling next week.

This comes after estimates coming out of the United States suggested that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die because of the novel coronavirus, and that the number would go up without adequate intervention.

"In these unprecedented times we must not forget for one moment that we’re facing a ruthless ruthless enemy, a terrible terrible virus that is spreading around the world at an alarming rate, infecting people from all walks of life, overwhelming hospitals, killing thousands of people," said Ford during his daily press conference at Queen's Park. "And if we’re going to beat this enemy, we need to remember this virus doesn’t travel on its own, it’s people that help spread it."

"The hard truth is, right now, today, there is very little separating what we will face here in Ontario from the devastation we’ve seen in Italy and in Spain; thousands of lives are at stake," said Ford. "These next few weeks will be absolutely critical because we know a surge is coming."

Ford said he couldn't give an exact timeframe on when Ontario might experience this "surge," but that according to provincial health officials it would be soon.

"I can’t give you an exact time, but I know we’re going to face it over the next few weeks and I just want to prepare people to continue practicing social distancing, making sure they self-isolate," he said, going on to reference a new order from Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams to local health authorities to enforce self-isolation of those with COVID-19 and their family members.

"We just want to make sure people understand how serious this is and we’re out here every single day saying make sure you practice social distancing," he said.

Asked about the numbers on the expected surge or the number of deaths Ontario could see even if the province is able to flatten the curve, Health Minister Christine Elliott did not disclose any, but she said there are "a number of different models" being used and that they have been presented to her.

"The point of the model is really to help give you guidance on how to deal with a situation, which we are doing and we are trying to flatten hat curve every day," she said.

"I think what the models indicate is that the next several weeks are going to be very critical for us, if we are going to be able to flatten this curve and not have a tremendous increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and unfortunately deaths," Elliott added. "All of the models indicate how important it is to maintain that physical distancing."

The premier added that two models could send two very different messages and that the models could "drastically change," saying one of his hesitations about releasing them is creating "panic if we overestimate."

During his afternoon briefing, Williams said the province has people working on models, but that he would like to include another five days of testing data to provide a more accurate picture of Ontario's possible path.

Essential services list 'being reviewed'

Ford said the government's list of essential businesses — those that are allowed to stay open under the province's state of emergency declaration — is "being reviewed absolutely every day" and that officials would be "adjusting that list" in the coming days.

Construction sites are allowed to stay open, but this has been controversial, with the Ontario Construction Consortium (OCC) saying that social distancing is difficult for workers at these sites. The OCC has called on the government to close non-essential sites for a few weeks until health and safety conditions can be improved for workers.

Ford said the province did 300 inspections in recent days, has shut down three sites and issued 160 orders to comply with recent guidelines.

He said closing all construction sites would have a ripple effect, especially because thousands of people are waiting to move into their new homes.

"Again, if the sites aren’t safe, we have hundreds of inspectors right across this province going into every site possible and if it’s not safe, they’re going to be shut down, it’s as simple as that," Ford said.

Long-term care homes

CBC reported on Wednesday morning that at least 30 deaths of residents in nursing and retirement homes in Ontario have been linked to COVID-19. On Tuesday afternoon, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate chief medical officer of health, said while she didn't have up-to-date numbers, 11 of the COVID-19 deaths in the province were long-term care home residents.

Asked about the discrepancy and why health officials didn't have an accurate picture of how COVID-19 was affecting these facilities, Elliott said it could have been that the health officials didn't have the exact number at the time of the briefing due to the fluidity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We are getting that information on a daily basis," she said, adding that she's "very concerned" about outbreaks in long-term care homes.

"That’s a very very vulnerable group of people that we need to protect, absolutely there’s more we can do," she said.

Elliott said the province isn't looking to boost pay for personal support workers (PSWs) at this time and that the procurement of personal protective equipment for frontline workers is taking up much of her and the premier's time right now.

The NDP issued a call earlier in the day for personal support workers' pay to be increased to $22 per hour.

"Many trained PSWs are not working in home care or long-term care because of underpaying and understaffing," the NDP said. "More staff gives workers in long-term care and home care time to care for people, and take necessary precautions with virus containment protocols."

On whether families can remove their loved ones from a long-term care home that is experiencing an outbreak, Elliott said they would be permitted to do that. She said the province had previously put in rules not allowing people to leave these facilities because they were being taken to their family's home for dinner, for example, and then being brought back.

"If families want to take their loved one and have them join them and stay with them, of course they’ll have to be cleared for COVID-19, if they want to do that, they can do that, but then they can’t come back in while COVID-19 is still with us," she said.

Ford deviates on mask policy

Associations representing nurses and PSWs in long-term care homes have said a policy that denies workers masks until after an outbreak has occurred has made the COVID-19 crisis in these homes worse.

Asked about workers not being allowed to wear masks during their shifts, Ford shared his personal view and voiced his disagreement with the policy.

"Are you safer with a mask? Absolutely you’re safer," said Ford. "I can’t stand up here and say you would be safer without a mask...but again I’m going to stick with the advice from the chief medical officer of health and the health professionals that give me advice."

Interpreter shoutout

The premier ended his press conference today by giving a shoutout to Christopher Desloges, the sign language interpreter who has stood along Ford during several of his press conferences.

Ford praised Desloges for showing up and never complaining, calling him a "rock star."

Desloges stepped up to the microphone and said he would still be present at the daily briefings, but would be taking a role that is more behind-the-scenes.