Ford more years: PCs win a second majority

Doug Ford got it done.

The Progressive Conservative leader has led his party to another majority government. And his two chief rivals, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca, have resigned.

In a muted campaign where the Liberals and NDP couldn't seem to find their footing, the Tories' play-it-safe plan worked to a T.

Ford's victory speech focused largely on building Ontario — the road to the Ring of Fire and the highways that defined his campaign. But it was mostly about building his base.

“Never in our lifetime has it been more important for a party to represent all of Ontario,” he said at the Toronto Congress Centre, in the heart of Ford Nation.

“Whether you work on the assembly line and voted NDP your whole life, or cast your last ballot for the federal Liberals, I want you to know that as long as I'm here, there's room for you in this party.”

The NDP has fended off the Liberals in the race for official opposition but it will be holding the government to account with a new leader.

“Tonight, it’s time for me to pass the torch — pass the baton, to hand off the leadership of the NDP,” a teary-eyed Horwath said.

“But you know what? It makes me sad, but it makes me happy because our team is so strong… I’m not shedding tears of sadness, I’m shedding tears of pride," she said.

“Because look at you — look at all of you — look what we’ve done together… Together, my friends, we have built a party that is stronger and more ready to govern than ever before.”

Del Duca lost a narrow race in Vaughan—Woodbridge, leaving the Liberal leader without a seat at Queen's Park. He lost to PC candidate Michael Tibollo, who beat him by nearly 20 points in the 2018 election.

This week, Del Duca pledged to stay on as leader regardless of whether he won his seat. But the results, which see the Liberals fail to regain official party status in the legislature, were a severe disappointment to the party.

Del Duca's speech was laden with thanks for his family, campaign team, and everyone who worked and volunteered for the party during the election.

"I have no doubt the women and men that Ontario Liberals have elected to the legislature will do their part, in fact will do more than their part, to help grow a new and energetic progressive movement here in Ontario," Del Duca said. "It will, however, be a movement that will be led by a new leader."

Del Duca said his next step is to take his family to Canada's Wonderland.

Meanwhile, the Greens lost in Parry Sound—Muskoka, dampening the mood at the party’s election night celebration in leader Mike Schreiner’s riding of Guelph.

Candidate Matt Richter and his party had high hopes for the riding and polling by Mainstreet Research had shown the Greens with a lead mid-race. But the home of Doug Ford’s cottage retreat went to PC candidate Graydon Smith, retaining the PCs' multi-decade grip on the riding.

Schreiner will remain Guelph's MPP, as was expected by most polls and observers. Schreiner became Ontario's first Green MPP in 2018 by winning Guelph with 45 per cent of the vote.

The PCs also battered NDP strongholds in the southwest, north and GTA.

The NDP hung onto Windsor West and the three ridings in the city of London. Other than that, the PCs swept the southwest, a sign of their newfound strength among organized labour.

"When I think about the unions that got behind us in this election, when I think about the coalition that we built together, it's incredible," Ford said Thursday night. "Because not long ago, those same people who are with us now couldn't see a home for themselves in this party."

Ford said he has more work to do on that front, and promised to "focus on what unites us."

The critical 905 belt, surrounding downtown Toronto, also went almost entirely blue. The PCs swept the NDP out of Brampton, unseating deputy leader Sara Singh in Brampton Centre and attorney general critic Gurratan Singh in Brampton East.

The party swept Peel, picking up three seats there from the New Democrats. They were also strong in the southwest, changing Essex and Windsor-Tecumseh from orange to blue. Longtime NDP Gilles Bisson lost his seat to a Tory George Pirie in Timmins.

A majority of voters did not elect the majority government, as is common in a first-past-the-post system. But Ford held onto the seats he needed to, and made inroads with nontraditional Conservative voters.

Ford's 2022 strategy was often that of a Milford man — neither seen nor heard. His announcements were entirely telepromptered. Media were given short notice and tightly controlled access. While other leaders spoke freely, Ford stuck like glue to his talking points, giving long answers that said little.

Ford's tepid campaign mirrored his political reinvention as a self-proclaimed centrist after years of populist bluster.

In 2018, Ford took the reins of a PC party in disarray. Former leader Patrick Brown was forced out after accusations of sexual misconduct, and Ford won a tight race with the help of social conservatives.

Ford's first year-and-a-half in government was marked by chaos. His buck-a-beer budget led to his finance minister's shuffling-out. He cut Toronto's city council in half in the middle of an election. And he frequently announced cuts only to reverse them after outrage. The public sector was in open revolt, helping students lead demonstrations on the lawn of Queen's Park.

Rock bottom for Ford arguably came at the Toronto Raptors' championship parade in summer 2019, where he was booed by thousands. His personal popularity was lower than former U.S. president Richard Nixon's after the Watergate scandal.

Ford Nation was on the verge of becoming a failed state. Then the pandemic hit.

Ford immediately shifted to a statesman-like image, the leader of "Team Ontario." His popularity surged. And despite a series of yo-yoing restrictions, wage caps on health-care workers, and a "Hunger Games"-like vaccine rollout, Ford's popularity never hit critically low levels.

Even the deaths of thousands in long-term care — and the army's horrific reports, putting the lie to Ford's promised "iron ring" around Ontario's seniors — weren't enough to stop the blue wave from engulfing Ontario once again.

As the province emerges, Ford is keeping the image that served him so well. He and his labour minister have courted unions aggressively in their bid to paint the PCs as the party of "yes" — to highways, hospitals and transit.

His political rivals didn't have an answer.

Other riding results to note:

• Independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady was elected in Haldimand—Norfolk. She was executive assistant to the riding’s former Tory MPP Toby Barrett, who backed her over the PC candidate in the race.
• PC Neil Lumsden was elected in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Long-time incumbent Paul Miller had been kicked out of the NDP caucus.
• PC Trevor Jones was elected in Chatham-Kent—Leamington. Former Tory Rick Nicholls ran under the Ontario Party banner and placed third.
• Deputy NDP Leader Sara Singh was defeated in Brampton Centre by PC Charmaine Williams.
• NDP incumbent Gurratan Singh, the brother of federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, was defeated in Brampton East by PC Hardeep Grewal.
• PC Graham McGregor won Brampton North, another pickup from the NDP, after the incumbent MPP Kevin Yarde was defeated in a nomination race by Sandeep Singh.
• Michael Ford, the nephew of Doug Ford, was elected in York South—Weston, picking up the seat from the NDP.
• Infrastructure Minister Kinga Surma was re-elected in Etobicoke Centre.
• Liberal Stephanie Bowman won in Don Valley West, defeating the PC candidate, former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders.
• Liberal Mary-Margaret McMahon, a former city councillor, won in Beaches—East York, picking up the seat from the NDP after the former MPP Rima Berns-McGown opted not to run again.
• Doug Downey, the attorney general, kept his seat in a very tight race against Barrie Mayor Jeff Lehman.
• Veteran New Democrat Gilles Bisson lost his Timmins seat to PC George Pirie. Bisson had represented the riding for more than 30 years.
• New Democrat Chandra Pasma picked up Ottawa West-Nepean from PC Jeremy Roberts.
• Liberal Ted Hsu has been elected in Kingston and the Islands.
• PC Stéphane Sarrazin won in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, unseating Amanda Simard, who had crossed the floor from the PCs to the Liberal party over francophone issues.
• PC Nina Tangri was re-elected in Mississauga—Streetsville, a traditionally Liberal riding that flipped in 2018.
• NDP incumbent Jennie Stevens was re-elected in St. Catharines.
• PC Patrice Barnes was elected in Ajax, a riding the Liberals had hoped to pick up.

With files from Jessica Smith Cross, Aidan Chamandy, Andy Takagi, Charlie Pinkerton and Patrick Cain.