Riding poll: NDP incumbent might be a one term MPP in Thunder Bay—Atikokan

New Democrat Judith Monteith-Farrell will have a tough time retaining her seat, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan went orange in 2018 after staying red for nearly two decades. Today, Liberal Rob Barrett leads the pack with 34.5 per cent, followed by Kevin Holland for the PCs at 26.9 per cent, and Monteith-Farrell rounding it out at 23.2 per cent.

Monteith-Farrell won in 2018 by just 81 votes, toppling the Liberal then-minister Bill Mauro. Since her election, Monteith-Farrell has been the NDP’s critic for all things forestry, mining, and natural resources.

Before 2018, Mauro had held the riding since 2003, and oversaw multiple files in former Premier Kathleen Wynne’s cabinet. After his defeat, Mauro ran in, and won, the mayoral race for Thunder Bay.

The PCs' pick, Holland, is outpacing his Conservative predecessors, who have never received more than 25 per cent of the vote share. Holland is the mayor of Conmee, a town just west of Thunder Bay. He’s held the position since 1997.

Holland was also one of a number of PC party candidates who ghosted local election debates.

Barrett is the newbie of the group, having never run for elected office before. According to the Liberals’ candidate announcement, Barrett has been “an executive director at several community service organizations, including a local employment service, family counselling centre, and an emergency shelter.”

This Mainstreet Research poll was conducted from May 26 to 28. A sample of 387 people was interviewed by automated telephone interviews. The poll is accurate to within ±5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The poll is weighted for age, sex, and region to be representative of the entire adult population of Canada.

Beyond the margin of error, all polls are subject to other sources of potential error, including coverage error. Riding surveys are particularly susceptible to coverage error; the smaller the population being surveyed, the greater the likelihood of coverage error.

The poll is not intended to predict what will happen in the future; it's a snapshot in time of what voter intentions were at the time of the fielding.

Mainstreet Research is part owner of iPolitics and QP Briefing.