Nearly half of voters say Ford has done a 'good job' at managing the pandemic: Poll

Nearly half of Ontario voters say Premier Doug Ford has done a "good job" of managing the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new poll.

The survey by Mainstreet Research, which interviewed 1,011 Ontario adults on Feb. 15 and 16, also found that the sentiment that Ford has been too severe in imposing lockdowns is more prominent among undecided voters and supporters of his own political party than among supporters of his opponents.

Mainstreet asked respondents to choose which of three phrases is closest to their opinion of Ford's handling of the pandemic. Forty-six per cent chose "Overall, Doug Ford has done a good job at managing the COVID-19 pandemic." Thirty-three per cent chose "Doug Ford has placed the demands of businesses ahead of Ontario residents' health and safety." And 21 per cent chose "Doug Ford has been too severe in imposing lockdowns."

Nearly one in four Progressive Conservative supporters (23 per cent) said Ford's response has been too severe, while 32 per cent of undecided voters held that view. Only 12 per cent of Liberals and 14 per cent of NDP supporters said the same. That view is quite high among supporters of other parties, but they make up a very low share of voters in Ontario.

"That's the challenge for Doug Ford," said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, referring to the part of Ford's base that considers his decisions too severe.

Compared to other right-leaning premiers, Ford's decisions have stayed closer to public health advice than that part of his base would like, said Maggi. "And yet, it hasn't really hurt him in the polls."

Mainstreet found Ford maintains a significant lead, with 36 per cent of respondents saying they would vote Progressive Conservative if an election was held that day, compared to 18 per cent for the NDP, 21 per cent for the Liberals and 5 per cent for the Greens. Another 17 per cent were undecided.

Maggi noted that Ford's support has the widest split between genders that he's seen, with 43 per cent of men saying they'd vote PC, compared to 30 per cent of women.

The polling had concluded before Ford said listening to NDP Leader Andrea Horwath was like "nails on a chalkboard," a comment that earned widespread media coverage and was criticized by his opponents as misogynistic.

"I think it's interesting, in the light that this male-female divide exists, and it might have made it worse," said Maggi.

Mainstreet also found that Ford's support is higher among older voters and lower in Toronto than in most other parts of the province.

The poll was conducted by Smart IVR technology reaching both landlines and cell phones and has a margin of +/- 3.08% at the 95 per cent confidence level, with higher margins among subsamples.