The third stage is the charm.
The government unveiled its outline for stage three public health restrictions Monday, allowing businesses and activities to open up in much of the province as of Friday at 12:01 a.m.
The stage three measures include higher crowd limits and, with various restrictions, the opening of gyms, movie theatres, bars and indoor restaurant service, casinos and more. Recreational classes like art, music and language may resume, although masks are recommended and distancing guidelines must be strictly observed. Playgrounds may reopen as well, although all kids who are not part of the same circle must remain at least two metres apart. And concerts and live events can continue, with the caveats that plexiglass or an impermeable barrier is required between the performers and the audience. All crowds must maintain social distance and gathering sizes are limited to 50 for indoor events and 100 for outdoor events.
Social circles — a recommended limit for groups of people who can have close contact with each other — will remain at 10.
"We're ready to take the next step," announced the premier at his daily afternoon press conference.
The premier also acknowledged the risks of lifting some public health restrictions, while adding that the idea is to reopen the economy safely. "I see these numbers from Florida and they're staggering, 15,000 people that contacted COVID in a day. That is scary, but we're being pretty vigilant, we're not rushing into anything. We're opening up slowly in stage three and being very, very cautious about it."
To that point, stage three won't yet apply to huge parts of the province that have not yet shown the progress needed to lift stage two public health constraints.
Those regions, as defined by public health units, include some of the most populous in the province, including Toronto, Peel and Hamilton:
• Durham Region Health Department
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
• Halton Region Public Health
• Hamilton Public Health Services
• Lambton Public Health
• Niagara Region Public Health
• Peel Public Health
• Toronto Public Health
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
• York Region Public Health
The decision as to which regions proceed into stage three was based on a combination of the spread of the virus, health system and public health unit capacity, and local tracking capabilities.
"We won't leave anyone behind," reassured the premier, saying that those regions will take longer to enter stage three in part because they entered stage two later, and more data is needed.
The government requires four weeks of stage two data in order to approve a region going into stage three. These 10 regions were approved for stage two at a later date, and so do not yet meet the requisite conditions. That means that Durham, Hamilton, Haldimand-Norfolk, Halton, Niagara, Sarnia-Lambton and York may be the next candidates to move into stage three, as they were the next wave that entered stage two. Peel and Toronto, where coronavirus cases were worse, came next — 12 days after the initial wave — followed by Windsor-Essex, where Ontario struggled to keep up with outbreaks at farms.
The third stage is particularly important because it could last a while. Health Minister Christine Elliott acknowledged that reality when she indicated that Ontario could operate under these conditions until a vaccine is developed. "Well certainly we're all hoping that there will be a vaccine in short order, but apart from that we will remain in stage three," she said. She added that there's the possibility of changing some details of stage three in the future, like the limits on crowd sizes, depending on the province's progress.
Ontario saw 116 positive tests reported as well as three fatalities in the latest coronavirus data. Almost 21,000 tests were completed; testing numbers tend to be lower on Mondays, as fewer people get checked on the weekend.
While testing capabilities and the spread of the virus have improved, progress still remains on some other issues as Ontario heads toward stage three. The contact tracing app developed in part by Shopify volunteers was supposed to be made available to the public on July 2, but has not been released yet. Cole Davidson, a spokesperson for federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu, said that the app would be released "very soon," although a timeline was not yet available. "To be the most helpful in our efforts to fight COVID-19, the app needs to be accessible and used by as many Canadians as possible," he stated, adding that the federal government is continuing to work with Apple, Google and jurisdictions across Canada on the item.
Not all businesses will be singing a high note or dancing the night away with the new guidelines. Although stage three will allow more activities to proceed, there will still be some prohibitions in the name of public health. According to a government document, those include:
• Amusement parks and water parks
• Buffet-style food services
• Dancing at restaurants and bars, other than by performers hired by the establishment following specific requirements
• Overnight stays at camps for children
• Private karaoke rooms
• Prolonged or deliberate contact while playing sports
• Saunas, steam rooms, bathhouses and oxygen bars
• Table games at casinos and gaming establishments
The government document indicates that businesses that are not able to initially reopen in stage three can expect some form of assistance.
"The government will work with businesses and sectors that are either not able to reopen in stage three, or who are experiencing significant challenges opening with restrictions, to explore how these organizations could safely resume operations as Ontario gradually reopens, while implementing public health and workplace safety measures." Those companies that are unable to reopen are invited to submit a proposal to the government on how they may safely do so.
While moving to stage three comes with some public health risks, it also could prove a boon to the economy. June's job numbers from Statistics Canada showed that Ontario added 378,000 jobs as most of the province entered stage two of lifting public health restrictions that month. However, the province still has a way to go as it has lost almost 800,000 net jobs since the start of the pandemic, even after accounting for the positive June numbers.
Meanwhile, the opposition roundly criticized the government for preparing to reopen the province — or proceed to a new normal, as the case may be — without what it considers a tenable plan for reopening schools. Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca offered his alternate plan, including hiring hundreds of new educators and opening hundreds of new classrooms, rather than the government's possible plan to see kids receive in-class instruction half of the week.
"You can’t bring people back to work or open the economy without first opening up schools. Reopening the economy without full-day school in September puts families in impossible situations," said the new Liberal leader, who took over the job shortly before the province buckled down in pandemic mode. "The only way to reopen the economy is to provide parents with the support they need to re-enter the workplace. We need to ensure schools are a safe place to learn and a safe place to work," he added, explaining his calls for more investment.
Opposition Leader Andrea Horwath called for more direct investment for businesses that have been hard hit from the pandemic, saying that they should receive support when it comes to PPE and plexiglass barriers. "As we prepare to move into a new stage of our economic reopening, we must remember that small businesses across the province are struggling because Doug Ford didn’t provide the kind of direct support needed to keep Main Street healthy and vibrant. Now, they need more than an announcement at a press conference. They need support."
Green Leader Mike Schreiner stated that there needs to be more in the way of contact tracing to ensure success during stage three. "The premier is opening the door to a second wave if he loosens public health restrictions without beefing up investments in contact tracing efforts," the Guelph MPP warned. "People want to move to stage three, but if we are going to do it safely, the premier must show leadership on how we will keep people safe."
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