Ontario bending the COVID-19 curve, if not flattening it: Chief medical officer of health

Ontario's top doctor said he sees a positive trend in some of the province's COVID-19 numbers — even as concerns over vulnerable residents in the province's long-term care homes mount.

On Saturday the province announced 411 new COVID-19 cases, an increase of 6.6 per cent, bringing the total to 6,237.

Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams noted it was the fourth straight day in which the number of new cases was lower than the day before.

"I certainly think this a positive trend and direction," he said. "So, I'm looking at that optimistically, saying we are certainly bending the curve, whether we've actually flattened it is another question."

Williams said he wants to see more information come in over the next few days, before making any stronger pronouncements.

He also pointed out that the number of patients in the province's intensive care units has plateaued in recent days — and that means he's less concerned about the possibility that the province will run out of critical care beds and ventilators.

As of Friday, there were 257 confirmed COVID-19 patients in ICU, 215 on ventilators, with more COVID-19 cases suspected and not yet confirmed. Some of those cases can be expected to be confirmed within days and others ruled out, according to public health officials.

Modelling projects released by the province on April 3 had forecast that the number of ICU patients would essentially double this week. In a best-case scenario, the number of ICU patients would continue to climb before peaking next week, just short of the province's maximum capacity to care for the critically ill patients. In the worst case scenario, the number of ICU admissions would continue to climb and overwhelm the health-care system's capacity.

But that initial doubling did not occur this week, Williams said.

"So I think there is some reassurance that we didn't go to that level as of this date," he said, adding that he expects so revised modelling next week. "I say it's still early, and just a small plateau like that, while reassuring, is not yet one of decision-making."

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Going forward, if it looks like the province has levelled the curve and can maintain it for weeks and months ahead, some elective, or "semi-elective" surgeries may be able to resume, he said. "I know that physicians out there (and) their patients are concerned about any further delay, and we want to try to open that back up again, so that those elective ones don't become urgent in the future."

Opening up surgeries would be done gradually — but that conversation is still down the road, said Williams.

However, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Ontario continues to climb. There have been 253 deaths confirmed by the province so far, and 109 of those deaths were residents of long-term care homes, where there are currently 79 outbreaks.

Last week, Williams issued new guidance for personal protective equipment and testing in long-term care homes, but the situation is grave.

At a press conference on Saturday afternoon, Premier Doug Ford spoke about a long-term care home in Quebec that was almost entirely abandoned by staff, leaving residents unfed, in soiled diapers, and two residents dead in their beds, according to a report by the Montreal Gazette.

"As a society and as a province, as a people, we cannot just, just leave people there. And it's so sad, just think of it. These are the most vulnerable," he said, adding that the province is making sure frontline health-care workers are supported, including with proper personal protective equipment.

The province has also assembled a workforce that has volunteered to help step in where there are staffing shortages, said Health Minister Christine Elliott.

So far, Ford and Elliott have rejected calls to increase wages for frontline workers in long-term to help retain them during the epidemic, as well as calls for wider testing of asymptomatic residents, staff and volunteers.