Ontario to release 'stark' coronavirus modelling numbers, including potential fatalities

The government will share its projections and modelling for potential coronavirus scenarios tomorrow, with Premier Doug Ford warning of "stark" figures that will provide "a real sobering discussion."

The decision to share the information is a prompt turnaround for the premier, who on Wednesday acknowledged that he had seen projected figures but did not want to share them out fear of causing undue panic.

On Thursday he repositioned himself, saying that transparency was the best option so that the public understands the stakes and the importance of social distancing and other aggressive public health measures. "It's a matter of life and death," he said in his daily afternoon press availability. "You deserve to see the same data that I do when you make decisions," he said in a direct address to the public.

He added the information will not be reassuring, while making the case that honesty gives Ontarians the best shot to adjust their behaviour. "I know many people will find this information hard to hear," he said, explaining that avoiding the tragedies of the high fatality rates seen in Italy and Spain is up to Ontarians, based on their commitment to social distancing. "I have to be upfront with people," saying that he won't hold back figures.

While Ontario modelling has been shared by the likes of a team including health experts from the University Health Network and University of Toronto, it has not come directly from the government. That's in contrast to the U.S., where President Donald Trump has commented on the estimate that even with social distancing measures the country could see 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities due to COVID-19.

Potential fatality numbers have not yet been shared by the Canadian government, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying in a press conference Thursday morning that the information would be available "soon."

Chief Medical Officer of Health David Williams made the case that modelling potential fatality scenarios, or infection scenarios, is not meant to be predictive as much as illustrative. That is, it should provide a high-level overview of outcomes to be prepared for — although if things are successful and the public adjusts their behaviour accordingly it may look as though the models were never accurate in the first place.

"If you do better and better you will shift the forecast," he said at his afternoon press availability. In the past Williams has downplayed modelling scenarios, but the premier said that with people having returned from March Break, more accurate forecasts can now be made.

The modelling could be especially important to understand the limits of Ontario's health-care capacity. In the previous model released by UHN and U of T health experts, they found that ICU bed and ventilator capacity could be reached by early-t0-mid-April, depending on the growth rate of the virus. Exceeding that capacity would mean that people who require care might be denied the service they need if there are not enough resources to serve all Ontarians.