Poll: Progressive Conservatives gain significant lead in Toronto

Over what has been a rollercoaster couple of months for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, support for the party has increased significantly in Toronto, a new poll by Forum Research has found.

The poll found PC support in the city at 43 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 33 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent, and the Green Party at four per cent. Two per cent said they would support another party. The Interactive Voice Response poll of 977 Toronto voters was conducted February 7 and 8, and the figures include decided and leaning voters. Forum says the results are considered accurate by plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Forum's last provincial horserace poll of Toronto voters was November 24, the day before the party released its People's Guarantee platform, featuring the smiling face of then-leader Patrick Brown on the cover of the glossy-magazine style document.

Since then, Brown has resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct involving young women, which he continues to forcefully deny. As the party holds a leadership election, it has also engaged in a campaign to, in the words of interim leader Vic Fedeli, "root out the rot" within it. That has meant personnel changes, the reining in of questionable spending, and an investigation into fake party memberships and electoral fraud at nomination meetings, which has resulted in two Tory candidate elections being overturned.

Since Forum's November poll, PC support in Toronto is up 12 points, support is unchanged for the Liberals, and NDP support has fallen 6 per cent.

“The Progressive Conservatives have moved past the Liberals to assume a commanding lead in the city of Toronto,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, in a press release. “Perhaps the unceasing news coverage of the Progressive Conservatives’ internal problems has proved positive for their fortunes in the city. The PCs should be concerned slightly by the weakening support for the NDP, however, as a collapsing NDP vote is far more likely to help the Liberals, than it will help them.”